Effective and Equitable Dissemination of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasts: Policy Implications from the Peruvian Fishery during El Niño 1997–98     

Kenneth Broad  Alexander S. P. Pfaff  Michael H. Glantz 《Climatic change》2002,54(4):415-438

The development of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions has spurred widespread claims that the dissemination of such forecasts will yield benefits for society. Based on the use as well as non-use of forecasts in the Peruvian fishery during the 1997–98 El Niño event, weidentify: (1) potential constraints on the realization of benefits, such aslimited access to and understanding of information, and unintended reactions; (2) theneed for an appropriately detailed definition of societal benefit, considering whose welfare counts as a benefit among groups such as labor, industry, consumers, citizens of different regions, and future generations.We argue that consideration of who benefits, and an understanding of potential socioeconomic constraints and how they might be addressed, should be brought to bear on forecast dissemination choices. We conclude with examples of relevant dissemination choices made using this process.  相似文献   

Origin of the northern Indus Fan and Murray Ridge, Northern Arabian Sea: interpretation from seismic and magnetic imaging     

Christoph Gaedicke  Hans-Ulrich Schlüter  Hans Albert Roeser  Alexander Prexl  Bernd Schreckenberger  Heinrich Meyer  Christian Reichert  Peter Clift  Shahid Amjad 《Tectonophysics》2002,355(1-4)

The nature and origin of the sediments and crust of the Murray Ridge System and northern Indus Fan are discussed. The uppermost unit consists of Middle Miocene to recent channel–levee complexes typical of submarine fans. This unit is underlain by a second unit composed of hemipelagic to pelagic sediments deposited during the drift phase after the break-up of India–Seychelles–Africa. A predrift sequence of assumed Mesozoic age occurring only as observed above basement ridges is composed of highly consolidated rocks. Different types of the acoustic basement were detected, which reflection seismic pattern, magnetic anomalies and gravity field modeling indicate to be of continental character. The continental crust is extremely thinned in the northern Indus Fan, lacking a typical block-faulted structure. The Indian continent–ocean transition is marked on single MCS profiles by sequences of seaward-dipping reflectors (SDR). In the northwestern Arabian Sea, the Indian plate margin is characterized by several phases of volcanism and deformation revealed from interpretation of multichannel seismic profiles and magnetic anomalies. From this study, thinned continental crust spreads between the northern Murray Ridge System and India underneath the northern Indus Fan.  相似文献   

Variability and climate sensitivity of fast ice extent in the north-eastern Kara Sea   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Dmitry Divine  Reinert Korsnes  Alexander Makshtas 《Polar research》2003,22(1):27-34

This work investigates the temporal and spatial variation of shore-fast ice extent in the north-eastern part of the Kara Sea during 1953-1990 and its sensitivity to interannual variability of the regional climate. The area of fast ice in spring months shows a bimodal distribution. This indicates the existence of two different regimes of fast ice formation driven by the system of prevailing winds. The westward wind transport during the cold season gives larger fast ice extent while the eastward wind transport suppresses the expansion of fast ice. There is a significant correlation (ca. −0.55) between the average winter temperature and the area of fast ice. Linear trends for time records of shore-fast ice area in spring show a decrease during 1953-1990. This decrease is most pronounced in April: the mean fast ice area in April is 12% lower in 1988-1990 compared to 1953-55. A comparison of fast ice regimes for two particular years–1979 and 1985–revealed a significant influence of cyclone activity on fast ice development over the course of the cold season. It is shown that partial break-ups of fast ice in spring 1985 are associated with the passage of cyclones across the area of fast ice.  相似文献   

Single-grain zircon dating of the metamorphic and granitic rocks from the Biscayarhalvøya-Holtedahlfonna zone, north-west Spitsbergen     

Yoshihide Ohta  Alexander N. Larionov  Alexander M. Tebenkov 《Polar research》2003,22(2):247-265

The Biscayarhalvøya-Holtedahlfonna zone (BHZ) in north-western Spitsbergen is a north-south trending, narrow horst, with crystalline basement rocks exposed under a Devonian unconformity. Previous K-Ar, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and Rb-Sr analyses have confirmed the occurrence of Caledonian thermal events, and Grenvillian ages have been obtained by conventional zircon U-Pb and single-zircon Pb evaporation methods. A total of 55 zircon grains from three samples (an augen metagranite, a micaceous schist and a granitic neosome of migmatite) have been analysed by the single-zircon Pb evaporation method. The grains with the age range of ca. 950-1100 My (million years) are the major component in all three samples, suggesting tectono-thermal activity in that period. The detrital versus resorption orgin of the rounded shapes of these grains from the granitic neosome is not clear yet. Therefore, the ages of the migmatization and of the sedimentary protoliths are not concluded. The youngest presumed detrital grain from the granitic neosome is 1060 My old. The metagranite, cutting the Richarddalen unit, yielded grains with an age of ca. 950 Mya. A granite dyke with an age range of 955-968 My cuts the Biscayarhuken unit in the northern Liefdefjorden area. These indicate the sedimentary protoliths of the Richarddalen and Biscayarhuken units are pre-Neoproterozoic. The youngest detrital zircon ages of ca. 940 My indicate Neoproterozoic sedimentary protoliths of the Solanderfjellet micaceous schists. A significant population of zircon grains with an age range of 1600-1900 My in all three samples suggests a wide exposure of these rocks in the source areas during Meso- and Neoproterozoic times. Several Archean ages have also been obtained. The results are generally conformable with those obtained from north-western Spitsbergen.  相似文献   

The reproductive features of a mature female of the deep sea planktonic squid Galiteuthis glacialis (Cephalopoda: Cranchiidae) from the Southern Ocean     

Vladimir Laptikhovsky  Alexander Arkhipkin 《Polar research》2003,22(2):395-397

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The northwest european shelf temperature and salinity variability     

Gerd A. Becker  Alexander Frohse  Peter Damm 《Ocean Dynamics》1997,49(2-3):135-151

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Response of the wadden sea to a rising sea level: a Predictive empirical model     

Burghard W. Flemming  Alexander BartholomÄ 《Ocean Dynamics》1997,49(2-3):343-353

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Russia at GHG Market     

Alexander Golub  Elena Strukova 《Climatic change》2004,63(1-2):223-243

In the first Kyoto commitment period Russia could be the major supplier for the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions market. Potential Russian supply depends on the ability of Russia to keep GHG emissions lower than the Kyoto target. In the literature there is no common understanding of the total trading potential of Russia at the international carbon market. In this paper we focus on CO₂ emission, which constituted nearly 80%of Russian GHG emission. We compare different projections of Russian CO₂emission and analyze the most important factors, which predetermine the CO₂emission growth. In a transition economy these factors are: Gross Domestic Product(GDP) dynamic, changes of GDP structure, innovation activity, transformation of export-import flows and response to the market signals. The input-output macroeconomic model with the two different input-output tables representing old and new production technologies has been applied for the analysis to simulate technological innovations and structural changes in the Russian economy during transition period. The Russian supply at the international GHG market without forest sector may be up to 3 billion metric ton of CO₂ equivalent. Earlier actions to reduce CO₂ emission are critical to insure theRussiansupply at the international carbon market. With regard to the current status of the Russian capital market, the forward trading with OECD countries is only the possibility to raise initial investments to roll no-regret and low-cost GHG reduction. This paper discusses uncertainties of RussianCO₂emission dynamics and analyzes the different incentives to lower the emission pathway.  相似文献   

Mineral dissolution in the Cape Cod aquifer, Massachusetts, USA: I . Reaction stoichiometry and impact of accessory feldspar and glauconite on strontium isotopes, solute concentrations, and REY distribution     

Michael Bau  Brian Alexander  John T Chesley  Susan L Brantley 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2004,68(6):1199-1216

To compare relative reaction rates of mineral dissolution in a mineralogically simple groundwater aquifer, we studied the controls on solute concentrations, Sr isotopes, and rare earth element and yttrium (REY) systematics in the Cape Cod aquifer. This aquifer comprises mostly carbonate-free Pleistocene sediments that are about 90% quartz with minor K-feldspar, plagioclase, glauconite, and Fe-oxides. Silica concentrations and pH in the groundwater increase systematically with increasing depth, while Sr isotopic ratios decrease. No clear relationship between ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and Sr concentration is observed. At all depths, the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of the groundwater is considerably lower than the Sr isotopic ratio of the bulk sediment or its K-feldspar component, but similar to that of a plagioclase-rich accessory separate obtained from the sediment. The Si-⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr-depth relationships are consistent with dissolution of accessory plagioclase. In addition, solutes such as Sr, Ca, and particularly K show concentration spikes superimposed on their respective general trends. The K-Sr-⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr systematics suggests that accessory glauconite is another major solute source to Cape Cod groundwater. Although the authigenic glauconite in the Cape Cod sediment is rich in Rb, it is low in in-grown radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr because of its young Pleistocene age. The low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios are consistent with equilibration of glauconite with seawater. The impact of glauconite is inferred to vary due to its variable abundance in the sediments. In the Cape Cod groundwater, the variation of REY concentrations with sampling depth resembles that of K and Rb, but differs from that of Ca and Sr. Shale-normalized REY patterns are light REY depleted, show negative Ce anomalies and super-chondritic Y/Ho ratios, but no Eu anomalies. REY input from feldspar, therefore, is insignificant compared to input from a K-Rb-bearing phase, inferred to be glauconite. These results emphasize that interpretation of groundwater chemistry, even in relatively simple aquifers, may be complicated by solute contributions from “exotic” accessory minerals such as glauconite. To detect such peculiarities, groundwater studies should combine the study of elemental concentration and isotopic composition of several solutes that show different geochemical behavior.  相似文献   

The effect of dissolved barium on biogeochemical processes at cold seeps   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Giovanni Aloisi  Klaus Wallmann  Alexander Derkachev  Erwin Suess 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2004,68(8):1735-1748

A numerical model was applied to investigate and quantify the biogeochemical processes fueled by the expulsion of barium and methane-rich fluids in the sediments of a giant cold-seep area in the Derugin Basin (Sea of Okhotsk). Geochemical profiles of dissolved Ba²⁺, Sr²⁺, Ca²⁺, SO₄²⁻, HS⁻, DIC, I⁻ and of calcium carbonate (CaCO₃) were fitted numerically to constrain the transport processes and the kinetics of biogeochemical reactions. The model results indicate that the anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) is the major process proceeding at a depth-integrated rate of 4.9 μmol cm⁻² a⁻¹, followed by calcium carbonate and strontian barite precipitation/dissolution processes having a total depth-integrated rate of 2.1 μmol cm⁻² a⁻¹. At the low seepage rate prevailing at our study site (0.14 cm a⁻¹) all of the rising barium is consumed by precipitation of barite in the sedimentary column and no benthic barium flux is produced. Numerical experiments were run to investigate the response of this diagenetic environment to variations of hydrological and biogeochemical conditions. Our results show that relatively low rates of fluid flow (<∼5 cm a⁻¹) promote the dispersed precipitation of up to 26 wt% of barite and calcium carbonate throughout the uppermost few meters of the sedimentary column. Distinct and persistent events (several hundreds of years long) of more vigorous fluid flow (from 20-110 cm a⁻¹), instead, result in the formation of barite-carbonate crusts near the sediment surface. Competition between barium and methane for sulfate controls the mineralogy of these sediment precipitates such that at low dissolved methane/barium ratios (<4-11) barite precipitation dominates, while at higher methane/barium ratios sulfate availability is limited by AOM and calcium carbonate prevails. When seepage rates exceed 110 cm a⁻¹, barite precipitation occurs at the seafloor and is so rapid that barite chimneys form in the water column. In the Derugin Basin, spectacular barite constructions up to 20 m high, which cover an area of roughly 22 km² and contain in excess of 5 million tons of barite, are built through this process. In these conditions, our model calculates a flux of barium to the water column of at least 20 μmol cm⁻² a⁻¹. We estimate that a minimum of 0.44 × 10⁶ mol a⁻¹ are added to the bottom waters of the Derugin Basin by cold seep processes, likely affecting the barium cycle in the Sea of Okhotsk.  相似文献